“Usando cifranan di Banco Central y IMF, mi a prepara un analisis economico di cada periodo di gobernacion desde Status Aparte. Pa cada gabinete mi ta saca un balans, cu ta simplemente crecemento economico real (ahusta pa inflacion) menos crecemento den debe nacional”, asina Miguel Jose Mansur Jr. a skirbi den su analisis financiero-economico. E prome 14 añanan a consisti di cinco diferente gobierno, tur tabata di coalicion y bao di tur nos crecemento economico real a surpasa e crecemento di debe dus e tabata un temporada positivo.
Den eleccion na aña 2001 un solo partido a logra mayoria pa prome biaha post-Status Aparte y esaki a marca un cambio di 180 grado. Gabinete Oduber III di MEP a sinta y pa prome biaha e crecemento den debe a surpasa e crecemento economico real pa mas cu 230 miyon florin!
Eleccion di 2005 a bolbe duna MEP un mayoria absoluto y e trayectoria scur ta sigui durante Gabinete Oduber IV. Pa prome biaha Aruba a conoce un crecemento economico real negativo durante un periodo di gobernacion. Combina cu e crecemento den debe di 741 miyon den 8 aña, dos gobierno sigui di un solo partido a caba cu tur e progreso di e cinco gobiernonan anterior!
AVP a gana eleccion na aña 2009 cu un mayoria absoluto y a inaugura Gabinete Mike Eman I. Desafortunadamente e trayecto di pobresa no ta solamente sigui pero acelera. Crecemento economico real a keda negativo pa e periodo di gobernacion aki tambe y mas espantoso ta cu nan a añadi mas cu 1.1 biyon na nos debe nacional sin conta e proyectonan PPP.
Den e siguiente eleccion AVP ta logra e mayoria mas grandi den nos historia post-status aparte, esta un gobierno di 13 asiento! Durante Gabinete Mike Eman II Aruba a bolbe na crecemento economico real positivo pero e no a yega ni cerca di e aumento den debe cu tabata casi dobel. Na final di su periodo di gobernacion nos Debt/GDP ratio a yega 76.9% di 45.6% na final di Gabinete Oduber IV y esey ta sin conta e obligacionnan financiero asocia cu proyectonan PPP estima na 923 miyon. Incluyendo e obligacionnan financiero di PPP e debe ta pasa 5 biyon y un Debt/GDP ratio di 93.4%. Sigur esaki tabata e administracion financiero mas destructivo den nos historia!
Eleccion di 2017 a bolbe un gobierno di coalicion di Gabinete Evelyn Wever-Croes. Te cu final di 2019 crecemento economico real tabata di 174 miyon mientras e debe a crece cu 206.8 miyon. E ta keda un aporte negativo na balans cumulativo pero e aumento den debe ta na un escala minusculo compara cu e periodonan di un solo partido den Gobierno. CAFt, medidanan adicional y e control di un gobierno di coalicion tabata parce di purba cambia e rumbo devastador prome cu e crisis di Covid-19 a dal.
Mi kier aclaria cu debe nacional riba su mes no necesariamente ta algo negativo. Ora ta inverti e placa den enseñansa, infrastructura y salubridad publico di forma responsabel, e por rindi den futuro. Aumenta debe nacional pa financia un sector publico cu tin por lo menos dos mil empleado di mas, si ta desastroso pa bienestar comun. Proyectonan publico of PPP cu un costo exorbitante y cu resultado cuestionabel p.e. flooding di Hospital nobo, ta inversionnan cu nunca lo recupera.
Loke e ultimo 34 añanan a mustra ta cu Gobiernonan di coalicion ta menos peligroso pa nos finanzas. Un cambio den ley den e sistema di restzetels mester bira un prioridad pa preveni e excesonan di pasado. Ta keda pa analisa si nos sistema di dos partido grandi, cu pa mayoria di nos historia post-1986 a pasa ta alterna despues di dos turno di gobernacion, por reforma pa saca nos di e pos financiero cu nos ta aden.
Tumando na cuenta e pronosticonan di IMF di un contraccion economico di 13.7% e aña aki, por lo menos 500 miyon florin mas den debe y e obligacionnan financiero PPP di casi un biyon cu no ta inclui den e cuentanan di pais Aruba, nos Debt/GDP ratio ta yega 112%. Mas probabel ta cu lo mester bolbe pidi Hulanda placa pa tur cuartal di 2021 y probablemente e prome mita di 2022 tambe, si no ta mas!
E beneficionan di nos autonomia cu tanto e politiconan ta alaba, a resulta fantasma. Al contrario, nos autonomia a empodera nos gobernantenan pa los laga bay cu finanzas publico te cu nos a caba den un buraco cu no tin salida sin pordonamento di debe y un sin fin di mas medida doloroso. No pasobra Status Aparte tabata malo (nos crecemento economico a yega un impresionante 18.6% na 1988), pero pasobra nos gobernantenan a resulta incapas di maneha finanzas publico di un manera responsabel, liber di limite imponi pa Hulanda of Antias.
Kico awor? Tin eleccion otro aña y ta dificil premira un situacion den cual AVP of MEP no ta bolbe den gobierno maske den coalicion. Ta keda cuestionabel si nos sistema di politica di patronahe cu a crea e situacion fatal aki por saca nos afo. Siendo un isla chikito caminda e electorado tin acceso relativamente facil na gobernante, a crea un dinamica cu ta traha na desfabor comun. Hende capacita y cu bon intencion a yega di drenta politica pero den nos sistema sin limite di periodo pa sinta como Parlamentario of Minister, e enfoke ta keda riba gana proximo eleccion. No ta tuma decisionnan dificil of inpopular pasobra nan ta costa voto y esey a resulta den e desaster actual cu ta existi desde Covid-19 y lo a bin toch pero no asina dramatico y urgente.
Despues di eleccion na 2017, Mike Eman huiciosamente a declara cu pueblo a perde confiansa den AVP (cu nan rason) y ta tempo pa e instituto renoba. El a declara cu e mes, De Meza, Sevinger y Dowers lo retira aunke nos no a tende mucho mas di esey despues cu e votonan personal a sali. Ban spera e no a cambia di idea pa tin un eleccion competitivo otro aña pasobra e legado di su dos administracionnan no por ta pio.
Evelyn Wever-Croes a priminti hopi, nan ta bay sinta cu 7 Minister, nan ta bay caba cu corupcion, nan tin e solucion sin medida….Wel, prome cu sinta caba un di e promesanan a cay na awa ora el a pone interes di partido prome cu interes nacional y a sinta cu 8 Minister toch. El a priminti di caba cu corupcion pero advocatenkantoor di su tata atrobe tin cuenta di Gobierno, el a para un verhuur contract cu un edificio di su tata publicamente pero otro miembronan di su famia ta sigui probecha. E tin un Minister cu tin casi tur su rumannan riba payroll di gobierno na salario cu nan no por duplica den sector priva. Casi tur ex-Minister di MEP ta riba payroll di Gobierno como consehero apesar di pensioen lucrativo, hopi di tanto Parlamentario como Minister.
Ta incomprendibel ta kico e ex-Ministernan tin di aporta despues di nan maneho ruinoso cu a kibra e rumbo positivo di status aparte y transforme den decadencia total. Pa colmo un di e ex-Ministernan kier purba engrandece su mes ta renombra caya pa su mes mientras na bida ainda, kizas e ta realisa despues e no lo sosode. Pa ta husto, ningun gobierno cu a sinta lo por a evita medida pero corupcion ta sigui. Awor kier introduci un departamento di integridad como insulto final na e poco berguensa cu a keda nos clase politico.
Mientras ta sigui cu e mesun sistema di gobernacion, historia ta mustra cu e decisionnan dificil y recorte nan doloroso rekeri ta for di alcance di nos politica of nos politiconan. CAFt, menasa y/o RFT ta e miho instrumentonan pa salvaguardia e interesnan di Aruba. Desgraciadamente nos mesun politiconan di tur dos partido grandi, durante e ultimo 20 añanan, a demostra cu nan no tin interes di nos pais na pecho pero esun di nan mes. E ironia ta cu herencia di status aparte a resulta den intervencion obligatorio di afo pa scapa nos pais y preveni un colapso total.
E añanan nos dilanti ta bay ta imposicion di medida y mas medida pa purba paga nos debe astronomico. Nos gobernantenan lo pasa pa tuma orden di nos creditornan pa kico haci. E mesun incompetentenan cu a derocha e oportunidadnan di status aparte sin pica lo grita pa independencia. Manera si pafo di Reino Hulandes si nan no lo guia Aruba na un peor kiebra. Nos autonomia ta dera hopi tempo pasa y si nos ta honesto, tampoco el a sirbi nos di mucho, fuera di pantomina.
Intervencion mester ta bonbini pasobra ta asina so e decisionnan dificil lo wordo tuma pa e pais aki bay dilanti. Compara e periodo di 2010 pa awor entre Aruba y Boneiro riba terenonan cu Hulanda ta maneha pa nos isla bisiña y e conclusion no por ta mas cla.
Elections 01 Jan 1986 – H. Eman I (AVP, PPA, ADN)
Real GDP growth: 490,000,000
Real GDP growth percentage: 38.7%
Gov’t Debt growth: 462,000,0001
Gov’t Debt growth percentage: N/A
Debt/GDP: 37.2%
Balance: 28,000,000 (real GDP growth – gov’t debt growth)
1. Estimates for comparison purposes, since there are no figures prior to 1989 I assume equal debt accumulation in previous four years (617/4=154.25 per year to equal 617 in 1989)
Elections 07 Jan 1989 – N. Oduber I (MEP, PPA, ADN)
Real GDP growth: 584,000,000
Real GDP growth percentage: 33.3%
Gov’t Debt growth: 559,300,000
Gov’t Debt growth percentage: 121%
Debt/GDP: 59.5%
Balance: 24,700,000 | (52,700,000 cumulative)
Elections 08 Jan 1993 – N. Oduber II (MEP, PPA, ADN)1
Real GDP growth: 274,000,000
Real GDP growth percentage: 11.7%
Gov’t Debt growth: 102,000,000
Gov’t Debt growth percentage: 10%
Debt/GDP: 53.9%
Balance: 172,000,000 | (224,700,000 cumulative)
1. Including the first half of 1994
Elections 29 Jul 1994 – H. Eman II (AVP, OLA)1
Real GDP growth: 404,000,000
Real GDP growth percentage: 15.5%
Gov’t Debt growth: 277,100,000
Gov’t Debt growth percentage: 24.7%
Debt/GDP: 51.1%
Balance: 126,900,000 | (351,600,000 cumulative)
1. From the second half of 1994
Elections 12 Dec 1997 – H. Eman III (AVP, OLA)1
Real GDP growth: 286,000,000
Real GDP growth percentage: 9.5%
Gov’t Debt growth: -600,000
Gov’t Debt growth percentage2: 0%
Debt/GDP: 41.2%
Balance: 286,600,000 | (638,200,000 cumulative)
1. Including first half of 2001
2. CBA reports decrease in debt whilst government ran a deficit for every year except 1998. I believe the gains are attributed to improvement and reform of tax collection.
Elections 28 Sep 2001 – N. Oduber III (MEP)1
Real GDP growth: 181,000,000
Real GDP growth percentage: 5.5%
Gov’t Debt growth: 411,200,000
Gov’t Debt growth percentage: 22.7%
Debt/GDP: 44.4
Balance: -230,200,000 | (408,000,000 cumulative)
1. Including first half of 2005
Elections 23 Sep 2005 – N. Oduber IV (MEP)1
Rea GDP growth: -70,000,000
Real GDP growth percentage: -2%
Gov’t Debt growth: 329,800,000
Gov’t Debt growth percentage: 18.2%
Debt/GDP: 45.6%
Balance: -399,800,000 | (8,200,000 cumulative)
1. Including first half of 2009
Elections 25 Sep 2009 – M. Eman I (AVP)1
Real GDP growth: -104,000,000
Real GDP growth percentage: -3.1%
Gov’t Debt growth: 1,102,900,000
Gov’t Debt growth percentage: 51.5%
Debt/GDP: 69.2%
Balance: -1,206,900,000 | (-1,198,700,000 cumulative)
1. Including first half of 2013
Elections 27 Sep 2013 – M. Eman II (AVP)1
Real GDP growth: 485,000,000
Real GDP growth percentage: 14.6%
Gov’t Debt growth: 868,100,000
Gov’t Debt growth percentage: 26.8%
Debt/GDP: 76.9%
Balance: -383,100,000 | (-1,581,800,000 cumulative)
1. Including first half of 2017
Including PPP liabilities to mid-year 20171
Gov’t Debt: 5,035,000,000
Debt/GDP ratio: 93.4
Balance: – 923,500,000 | (-2,505,300,000 cumulative)
1. Including projected off-balance sheet liabilities of AWG 923,529,381, Thesis Report Solaida K. Pierre, September 2019
Elections 22 Sep 2017 – E. Wever-Croes I (MEP, POR, RED)1
Real GDP growth: 174,000,000
Real GDP growth percentage: 4.6%
Gov’t Debt growth: 206,800,000
Gov’t Debt growth percentage: 5%
Debt/GDP: 73.3%
Balance: -32,800,000 | (-1,614,600,000 cumulative)
1. Figures include second half of 2017 through end of 2019 excluding off-balance sheet PPP liabilities.
Including PPP liabilities to end year 2019
Gov’t Debt: 5,242,000,000
Debt/GDP ratio: 102%
Balance: – 923,500,000 | (-2,538,100,000 cumulative)
2020 IMF Projections (cont’d from end 2019)1
Real GDP growth: -544,000,000
Real GDP growth percentage: -13.7%
Gov’t Debt growth: 500,000,0001
Gov’t Debt growth percentage: 11.6%
Debt/GDP: 93.8%
Balance: -1,044,000,000 | (-3,582,100,000 cumulative)
1. Excluding off-balance sheet PPP liabilities
2. Estimate according to PM’s declarations that Aruba will have to borrow AWG 500 million this year to meet its immediate funding needs.
Including PPP liabilities to end year 2020
Gov’t Debt: 5,742,100,000
Debt/GDP ratio: 111.7%
Balance: – 923,500,000 | (-3,082,100,000 cumulative)
Source: Central Bank of Aruba Annual Statistical Digest and IMF (AWG MILLIONS) excluding PPP liabilities
| GDP | Real GDP | Real GDP growth % | Gov’t debt | FinancialDeficit/GDP % | Debt/GDP | |
| 1986 | 726 | 1275 | 0.7 | 1549 | 2110 | |
| 1987 | 873 | 1480 | 16.1 | 3089 | 35.310 | |
| 1988 | 1068 | 1756 | 18.6 | 4629 | 43.310 | |
| 1989 | 1245 | 1969 | 12.1 | 617 | 49.6 | |
| 1990 | 1369 | 2047 | 4.0 | 690 | 50.4 | |
| 1991 | 1561 | 2210 | 8.0 | 726 | 46.5 | |
| 1992 | 1716 | 2340 | 5.9 | 1021.3 | 59.5 | |
| 1993 | 1939 | 2511 | 7.3 | 1077.8 | 55.6 | |
| 1994 | 2230 | 2717 | 8.2 | 1168.8 | 52.4 | |
| 1995 | 2364 | 2785 | 2.5 | 1302.3 | -0.8 | 55.1 |
| 1996 | 2470 | 2820 | 1.3 | 1352.8 | -2.3 | 54.8 |
| 1997 | 2742 | 3018 | 7.0 | 1400.4 | -2.1 | 51.1 |
| 1998 | 2981 | 3074 | 1.9 | 1223.2 | -1.0 | 41 |
| 1999 | 3084 | 3116 | 1.4 | 1211.6 | -1.1 | 39.3 |
| 2000 | 3353 | 3353 | 7.6 | 1294.9 | 0.2 | 38.6 |
| 2001 | 3437 | 3254 | -3.0 | 1504.7 | -0.8 | 43.8 |
| 2002 | 3475 | 3147 | -3.3 | 1653.3 | -2.1 | 47.6 |
| 2003 | 3618 | 3210 | 2.0 | 1494.6 | 4.8 | 41.3 |
| 2004 | 3989 | 3464 | 7.9 | 1717.1 | -8.9 | 43 |
| 2005 | 4172 | 3506 | 1.2 | 1904.9 | -3.0 | 45.7 |
| 2006 | 4340 | 3543 | 1.1 | 2012.3 | -2.8 | 46.4 |
| 2007 | 4681 | 3615 | 2.0 | 2135.6 | -1.5 | 45.6 |
| 2008 | 4914 | 3620 | 0.2 | 2051.4 | 1.0 | 41.7 |
| 2009 | 4473 | 3210 | -11.3 | 2230.1 | -3.6 | 49.9 |
| 2010 | 4279 | 3102 | -3.4 | 2400.7 | -4.4 | 56.1 |
| 2011 | 4564 | 3212 | 3.5 | 2802.1 | -7.1 | 61.4 |
| 2012 | 45371 | 3168 | -1.4 | 3067.8 | -9.86 | 67.66 |
| 2013 | 4836 | 34543 | 95 | 3419.6 | -6.9 | 70.7 |
| 2014 | 4950 | 34833 | 0.8 | 3882.1 | -8.2 | 78.4 |
| 2015 | 5226 | 36833 | 5.7 | 3934 | -3.5 | 75.3 |
| 2016 | 5309 | 37523 | 1.9 | 4026.2 | -3.5 | 75.8 |
| 2017 | 5471 | 38393 | 2.3 | 4197.3 | -2.4 | 76.7 |
| 2018 | 57342 | 39173 | 2.0 | 4299.1 | -0.8 | 75 |
| 2019 | 58952 | 39703 | 1.4 | 4318.6 | -0.1 | 73.3 |
| 2020 | 51394 | 34264 | -13.7 | 4818.67 | 93.88 |
- The figure for 2012 is from the CBA Annual Statistical Digest 2017 since the CBA 2019 and 2018 reports do not include figures for 2012.
- Provisional figures according to the CBA Annual Statistical Digest 2019
- These figures are from the CBA Annual Statistical Digest 2019 but are calculated using GDP deflator (2000 = 100) for comparison purposes so that 2013 = 140. There is a discrepancy in numbers between the CBA 2017 Digest and later reports in 2018 and 2019 for GDP from 2013 onwards. In this study I am using the higher numbers from the later report.
- Calculated using IMF Projected Real GDP (% Change) -13.7% and Projected Consumer Price Change 1.5%
- The CBA Annual Statistical Digest 2019 includes revised numbers for GDP from 2013 onwards which are significantly higher than those in the 2017 Digest for the same period. Hence it is likely that the Real GDP growth, especially for the year 2013, is artificially inflated due to the higher numbers in the later report even after revising using 2000 = 100 GDP deflator. Since revised numbers from 2012 and earlier are not available there is an unaccounted spike and it is more likely that the real figure is closer to that detailed in the 2017 Digest of 4.2%.
- This figure is from CBA 2017 Digest as the later publications do not include a figure for 2012. The figures from 2013 onwards are from 2019 Digest even though they are lower than those in the earlier publication.
- Estimate considering PM’s declaration that Aruba will likely have to borrow AWG 500 million this year to meet its immediate funding needs.
- Based on IMF projections and government expectations.
- These figures are estimates, since there is no information on government debt prior to 1989 I simply divided the accumulated debt evenly to the proceeding four years for comparison purposes.
- Estimates for comparison purposes calculated by assumptions in point 9 above.
